Here’s an interesting mental exercise for you based on the famous “Monty Hall Problem”:

Imagine

There are three cups upside down on a table.  One of the cups has a $100 bill under it.  Your objective is to maximize your odds of finding the $100 bill.  You are allowed one guess to find the $100 bill.  For your guess, you choose the far right cup.

Before you look under the cup, I show you the far left cup was empty and offer you the chance to change your guess to the middle cup.  Now what do you do?  Do you keep the far right cup, or do you switch and take the middle cup?  And more importantly, why?

The Perception

“Well, it doesn’t matter which cup I choose. My odds are 50/50 with the two remaining cups… so I choose to keep the far right cup.”

The Reality

The odds of picking a wrong cup in this scenario are still 66%.  So, logically, you should accept the offer and switch to the middle cup because you now know the far left cup was wrong and the odds are that your initial choice of the far right cup was also wrong.

This strategy will raise your odds of guessing the correct cup to 66% (vs. the original 33%).

I am using the term “logically” a little tongue-in-cheek.  It certainly is counter-intuitive, but the math is solid.

Perspective

Very seldom in business is the cost of a mistake only $100.  Whether revising your infrastructure strategy, improving your software testing methodologies, or simply evaluating emerging technologies, there are hidden perceptions everywhere.

Perspective is the key to deciphering perception vs. reality, and this is where Fusion excels.  We focus on your business problem by shifting our perspective in multiple directions.  We look inside out, upside down, and back-to-front.  We push beyond perception to find the reality of the business issues at stake and help you make decisions that have sound footing and are derived from our proven processes.

Visit our website, and see how we can help you choose the right cup!